The Myth Of ANWR

Scott McClellan today at his press briefing said,

(White House)If ANWR had passed and been implemented, we would have additional oil available today. It was passed a decade ago, yet it was vetoed by his predecessor.

He is correct, if passed 10 years ago we would have oil from it today. That's because it has been said it will take 10 years for any oil from ANWR, once drilling starts assuming enough oil is found, to make itself to gas pumps. What he forgets to tell you is that it would be gone by this time next year. By best estimates given by our governments own agency, there is at most, one year of oil in ANWR.(U.S. uses 7.3 billion barrels a year)

(USGS)Assessment Results

The total quantity of technically recoverable oil within the entire assessment area is estimated to be between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels (95-percent and 5-percent probability range), with a mean value of 10.4 billion barrels. Technically recoverable oil within the ANWR 1002 area (excluding State and Native areas) is estimated to be between 4.3 and 11.8 billion barrels (95- and 5-percent probability range), with a mean value of 7.7 billion barrels (table 1).

Quantities of technically recoverable oil are not expected to be uniformly distributed throughout the ANWR 1002 area. The undeformed area (fig. 2) is estimated to contain between 3.4 and 10.2 billion barrels of oil (BBO) (95- and 5-percent probability), with a mean of 6.4 BBO. The deformed area (fig. 2) is estimated to contain between 0 and 3.2 BBO (95- and 5-percent probability), with a mean of 1.2 BBO.

Figure 5 shows the expected numbers of accumulations and volumes of technically recoverable oil grouped by accumulation-size class. It shows that most of the oil is estimated to occur in accumulations that exceed 100 million barrels, the size of recently developed north Alaskan stand-alone accumulations. Moreover, at the mean, nearly 80 percent of the oil is thought to occur in the western part of the ANWR 1002 area, which is closest to existing infrastructure. Volumes of oil are expected to occur as several accumulations rather than a single large accumulation.

Commercial viability of a discovery depends on oil price, accumulation size, recovery technology, and proximity to existing infrastructure (pipelines, etc.). The economic analysis presents the cost of transforming technically recoverable resources into producible proved reserves—it shows the market price that would have to be paid to find, develop, produce, and transport to market (lower 48 West Coast) any particular quantity of assessed oil assuming current technology and existing scientific understanding. Figure 6, which is based on the field-size distributions associated with the mean, 95-, and 5-percent probability oil estimates, summarizes the findings of the economic analysis. The cost functions are calculated in constant 1996 dollars and are based on the expectation that production will repay all operating costs, including taxes and transport to market, all investment expenditures, and provide and an after-tax rate of return of at least 12 percent on the investment.

Besides, how do you tell America in your State of The Union speech that we are addicted to oil and then say we need to open ANWR. It's like telling a drunk, to help you get by have a beer. Any time someone in Washington wants to lead and not go backwards, we are more than willing to follow and do what is necessary!!